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The Last Fed Meeting of 2025: Global Week Ahead

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Key Takeaways

  • The Last Fed Meeting of 2025 Happens Tuesday-Wednesday
  • Are Markets Ready to "Re-Accelerate"?
  • Data Expected from China, Swiss National Bank & Turkiye

What is happening in the Global Week Ahead?

The long-awaited December U.S. Federal Reserve meeting is almost here.

But it's not the only game in town for financial markets, with:

  • Canadian
  • Swiss
  • Australian, and 
  • Turkish central banks also meeting


And the latest China macro data comes out for traders to pore over.

Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
 

(1) On Dec. 9th-10th, the Final FOMC Meeting of 2025 Happens


Speculation about whether the Fed will ease rates for a third time next week has come full circle since an October rate cut.

After a rough patch, Wall Street is again buoyed as if another reduction is a done deal.

Policymakers were not unanimous about the last cut, and differences remain. Several lean dovish, and President Donald Trump will keep up pressure to drop rates.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted "strongly differing views about how to proceed," chilling market certainty by saying that a December cut was not a foregone conclusion.

And opaqueness on the economy remains. November inflation data is out in the week to come. Some data has trickled in since the government reopened on November 13, still October and November jobs data only comes out after the Fed meeting.

Rate futures reflect confidence in a quarter point cut, but traders are mercurial. Odds recently were less than 50/50.

 

 

(2) Will There Be a “Re-Acceleration”? 2026 Outlooks Are Notably Optimistic


With Bitcoin's recent wobble (it suffered its biggest monthly fall in November since February) and Japanese bonds taking a whack, you'd think alarm bells of caution would be ringing.

Yet the smart people in the room seem decidedly upbeat on the year ahead, judging by some of the 2026 outlooks emerging.

They're largely sticking with bullish bets on equities, especially in the tech-driven U.S. market.

Lombard Odier calls it the re-acceleration trade, with global economic growth expected to drive a "diversified" stocks rally. BNP Paribas has an above-consensus forecast for Eurozone growth.

The euro is rallying again, and even talk of an AI bubble bursting hasn't really dented stocks.

Perhaps the degree of optimism itself — in markets where consensus trades have not always got it right — warrants some caution.
 

(3) Macro Data from Mainland China? Likely Downbeat


China's struggle with a years-long property slump and anemic domestic demand shows little sign of recovery even as the year's end draws closer, with the clock ticking for Beijing to deliver more stimulus to shore up its economy.

Trade data Monday and inflation figures on Wednesday could paint a similarly downbeat picture, keeping investors focused on the economic agenda for the year ahead to be unveiled later this month.

Defaults are also in the spotlight, as China Vanke, once the country's top home builder by sales, seeks a one-year extension on its onshore bond repayment.

A bondholder meeting is set for December 10th.

Down Under, Australia's central bank meets Tuesday and is likely to leave rates unchanged in an economy that's still running hot.
 

(4) On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Meets; Their Policy Rate is 0%


The Swiss National Bank will almost certainly keep rates at 0% when it meets on Thursday. They are expected to stay stuck there in 2026, even though inflation has slipped towards the lower end of the SNB's range.

Officials expect inflation to rise, but also say they would tolerate a temporary blip below 0%. U.S. tariffs aren't helping, but one of the SNB's biggest headaches is homegrown: the currency.

The franc has appreciated nearly +12% against the dollar this year, set for its strongest year since 2002. The Swissie has barely moved against the euro in 2025, but over the last five years, it has gained 14%.

Bearing in mind that Europe is Switzerland's largest market, accounting for around half of total exports, this strength is hurting everyone from watchmakers to wealth managers.
 

(5) On Thursday, Turkiye’s Embattled Central Bank Also Meets


Turkiye's central bank will set rates on Thursday. There’s little doubt it will cut, but by how much is hotly debated.

November inflation, at just over 31%, has come in surprisingly soft on the headline number thanks to declining food prices, but rising pressures from services, including rent, make inflation stickier than hoped.

The central bank's end-2025 inflation target stands at 24%, with its forecast range at 31%-33%. Markets are watching this final policy meeting of the year for signals on the pace of future easing, with the main rate now at 39.5%. JPMorgan expects a 100 basis point cut, but doesn't rule out a 150-bps trim.

Meanwhile, Brazil's central bank is expected to keep its rates at 20-year highs of 15% on Wednesday, but a sharper than expected economic slowdown has fuelled bets a cut could come in January.
 

Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks


I picked another three ‘high-flyers’ this week. Momo stocks are still raging.

(1) Monster Beverage (MNST - Free Report) : This is a $73 a share stock, with a market cap of $72.2B. It is found in Zacks Beverages-Soft Drinks industry. There is a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.

 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Monster Beverage Corp., headquartered in Corona, CA, is a marketer and distributor of energy drinks and alternative beverages. Incorporated in 1990 in Delaware, Monster Beverage was previously known as Hansen Natural Corporation. In 1992, the company acquired the Hansen Beverage business.

On Jun 12, 2015, Monster Beverage closed a deal with The Coca-Cola Company (TCCC). Per this long-term strategic deal, Coca-Cola acquired an approximate 16.7% equity stake in Monster Beverage. Coca Cola also transferred ownership of global energy drinks business, which includes brands like NOS, Full Throttle, to Monster Beverage. In exchange, Monster Beverage tran sferred non-energy business to TCCC.

Monster Beverage reports results under the following operating segments:

  • Monster Energy Drinks (91.7% of net sales in third quarter): Monster Energy Drinks Segment includes the former Direct Store Delivery segments, excluding Peach Tea brand. This segment comprises mostly Monster Energy brand products.
  • Strategic Brands (6.2%): The Strategic Brands segment includes brands acquired from the “TCCC Transaction.” Monster Beverage observes the same business model with acquired brands as their previous owner.
  • Alcohol Brands (1.8%): Alcohol Brands segment includes various craft beers and hard seltzers purchased as part of its acquisition of CANarchy Craft Brewery Collective LLC on Feb 17, 2022, as well as The Beast Unleashed. It also sells kegged and ready-to-drink canned beers, hard seltzers and FMBs, primarily to beer distributors in the United States.
  • Other (0.3%): The Other segment includes the former warehouse segment and the Peach Tea brand. The segment also includes products acquired from the AFF Transaction that are sold to independent third-parties. On Apr 1, 2016, the company acquired the concentrate and flavor business of American Fruits and Flavors (AFF).

 

(2) MongoDB (MDB - Free Report) : This is a $396 a share stock, with a market cap of $33.0B. It is found in the Zacks Internet Software industry. There is a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

MongoDB, Inc. provides a general-purpose database platform.

Its products include MongoDB Enterprise Advanced, MongoDB Enterprise for OEM, MongoDB Professional, MongoDB Stitch, MongoDB Atlas, Development Support, Ops Manager, Cloud Manager, Compass, Connector for business intelligence, and Connector for Spark.

The company serves financial services, government, healthcare, media and entertainment, retail, technology and telecommunications industries.

MongoDB, Inc. is headquartered in New York.

(3) Lumentum (LITE - Free Report) : This is a $328 a share tech stock, with a market cap of $21.4B. It is found in the Zacks Communication  Components industry. There is a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.

 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Lumentum Holdings Inc. is a manufacturer of innovative optical and photonic products.

The company's operating segment consists of Optical Communications and Commercial Lasers.

  • The Optical Communications segment portfolio includes products used by Telecom and Datacom nanoelectromechanical systems and traditional as well as cloud/data center service providers.
  • The Commercial Lasers segment products serve its customers in markets and applications, such as manufacturing, biotechnology, graphics and imaging, remote sensing and precision machining.


Lumentum Holdings Inc. is headquartered in Milpitas, California.
 

Key Global Macro


Yes. This is a big central bank meeting week.

On Monday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) supplies a policy rate decision. 3.6% is their current policy rate.

On Tuesday, the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings data for OCT comes out. I see 7.2M is the forecast. That is close to the prior 7.227M number.

On Wednesday, Mainland China’s YTD Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) data comes out. I see a weak -10.3% YTD prior FDI number. Not good!

The U.S. Fed supplies its policy rate decision, and the updated FOMC Economic Projections come out. There is a presser. Look for a 25-bps cut, from 3.89% to 3.64%.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) supplies its policy rate decision. Their policy rate is 2.25%.

On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) supplies its policy rate decision. They are at 0%. No policy rate change is expected.

On Friday, the Fed’s Paulson and Goolsbee speak, after the blackout period ends.
 

Conclusion


On Nov. 21th, 2025 Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian put out a brief update.

What he wrote:

Including Nvidia, the “Mag 7” group’s Q3 earnings increased +28.3% from the same period last year on +18.1% higher revenues.

This would follow the group’s +26.4% earnings growth, on +15.5% revenue growth.

Not all members of the elite group are equally contributing to the growth pace, ranging from:

 

 

Q3 Earnings Season Scorecard


Including all reports released through Friday, November 21st, we now have Q3 results from 473 S&P500 members, or 94.8% of the index’s total membership.

The reporting cycle has come to an end for 10 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with most of the remaining results coming via the Tech and Retail sectors.

Total earnings for these S&P500 companies?

 

  • Q3 EPS was up +15.6% y/y, on +8.3% higher revenues
  • 83.4% beat EPS estimates, and
  • 75.6% beat revenue estimates


The ‘Mag 7’ is not the U.S. economy. Though it matters greatly.

You have to love the S&P500 market weight indices, now, if you are a stock investor.

That S&P500 portfolio weighting framework is de-coupling that key large cap share returns benchmark — from the weak U.S. job market’s circumstance.

That’s it for me.

Enjoy this week, in trading and investing.

Warm Seasonal Regards,

John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist

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